SAl Exclusive: An interview with Middle East Expert Hussain Abdul-Hussain
Hussain Abdul-Hussain is a Lebanese-Iraqi born journalist and expert on the Middle East. He is the Washington Corespondent for the Kuwaiti newspaper Al Rai and has contributed to many other news sources including the BBC, CNN, New York Times and Washington Post. In 2003 he reported from Baghdad just after the American invasion.
He talks to Studentatlarge.net about many of the big political issues in the Middle East from the Arab Spring to Women's rights and the future of Iran.
Interview by Tom Remp
He talks to Studentatlarge.net about many of the big political issues in the Middle East from the Arab Spring to Women's rights and the future of Iran.
Interview by Tom Remp
S.A.L: Could you give us a bit of background about yourself?
HH: I am Lebanese-Iraqi, grew up in both countries and went to the American University of Beirut. I worked as reporter and later editor at Beirut's The Daily Star daily newspaper for a few years. In 2004, I moved to Washington where I worked as producer with Congress-funded Arabic TV Alhurra. In 2007, I joined Kuwaiti newspaper Alrai as their correspondent in Washington, a position I still occupy today.
S.A.L: What are some of the general misconceptions many people in the Western World (and especially America) have about the Middle East?
H.H: Misconceptions are on both sides of the ocean and are shaped by history of the different populations. The Middle East is an old world with layers of civilizations mixing, marrying and replacing each other over the past 15,000 years or more. America is the new world were people understand diversity and try to stay politically correct when dealing and interacting with each other. Middle Easterners (the Arabs) are often apprehensive when dealing with great powers. Their experience with colonial Europe was less than ideal and they project this experience on America as the world's current colonial power.
The difference in the way they look at themselves and at the world has shaped the relations between the two, and not in a good way I would say. This said, I have to add that it is difficult to gauge such sentiments on either side because we risk overgeneralizing. The Americans are not one, and neither are the Arabs. We have to keep in mind that there is no one view that defines each side, even though some perceptions are more prevailing than others on either sides.
S.A.L: How would you best describe the series of events known as the Arab Spring, where did they begin, etc?
H.H: The Arab Spring is the natural evolution of events. History teaches us that humanity is not as stagnant as we might think. The reason why the Arab Spring took the form of public protest, and at times an all out war like in Libya, is because all Arab countries lack the mechanism needed for change. The rulers of Arab countries and their associates were lured by power and have done their best to remain in their positions for decades. This is against the natural flow of things. Sooner or later, change was coming. Because it has no proper channels, it looks messy.
S.A.L Why is the Arab Spring not working in Syria like it worked in Libya, Tunisia and Egypt?
H.H: When people defy a dictator, they do so knowing that the world is watching, and that the world will not tolerate the tyrant's reprisal beyond a certain number of deaths. In Egypt, Mubarak killed dozens, but he could not go on killing because the world was watching and eventually forced him to step down. The same thing happened in Libya even though Qaddafi, being the crazy man he was, was not willing to let go without a bloody mess and foreign intervention. The reason why the world acted in both cases is due to the strategic importance of both countries. Egypt is the most populous Arab country with around 80 million people. Libya is amongst the top 10 countries with biggest oil reserves. Syria, however, has a meager amount of oil not worthy of the cost of foreign military intervention. Its population is less than quarter that of Egypt, and Assad's international friends like Russia, China and Iran, have made and conclusive foreign intervention on the side of the anti-Assad freedom fighters more costly. So the world believes strategic benefits out of Syria are much less than its cost. That's why Syria has lingered. Assad kills those demanding he steps down and the world watches.
S.A.L: Why did the Arab Spring happen now and not earlier or at a later time? What is so significant about this happening now? There has been corruption in the Middle East for many many decades, and the amount of "corruption" and "lack of freedom" has not really changed throughout these decades, so why are people rebelling now?
H.H: We cannot always assign a single reason for change. It happens because of several factors. I would say the telecom boom, the internet and sat TV opened many Arab eyes about their lagging behind other nations. Why can a boy of Kenyan decent living in the US, raised by a single mother sometimes on food stamps, ascend the ranks to become America's president while average boys in Libya, Syria or Egypt have to watch with envy?
S.A.L: Why don't we see similar revolutions against Israel by the Arabs? (since it seems that Arabs are just as much against Israel as they were against their rulers if not more in many cases.)
H.H: Revolutions depend on certain premises. You have to be a citizen in a country to have certain privileges. In the US, Canadians cannot come to the country and ask for rights. Their rights are with the country that elects them. In the case of Israel and Palestinians, the question is multilayered. First you have Palestinians who live inside Israel (around 20 percent of the population). These have some rights. They can elect and be elected to the country's parliament, the Knesset. However, they are missing other rights pertaining to serving in the army and real estate issues. These injustices can be redressed, but they are connected to the bigger picture. Real estate ownership in Israel is complicated, even for the Jews. As for the army, there has been a history of mistrust between the state of Israel and some of its Arab citizens, given the historic animosity between the two. This can be solved if the two parties decide to, but it might take some time.
Then you have 2 million Palestinians who live in what the UN recognizes as the Palestinian Territories (PT). Israel controls the bigger part of these lands (since its withdrawal from Gaza, it occupies the West Bank only) and has allowed for some of its citizens to build on them calling them "disputed lands" whose ownership will be decided in a final deal between the two sides. The issue is thus between two nations, Israel, and the Palestinians aspiring for end of occupation and creation of a sovereign state. This means that Palestinians of the PT are not citizens of Israel, and as such, the word revolution does not apply to whatever objection they might have against Israel. In the past, there were popular protests against Israel's military personnel controlling PT. The first, in 1987, resulted in the start of a peace process later. The second, in 2001, ended without any agreements.
S.A.L: Do you believe that Egypt had a fair election being that the only organization that was ready to run and had the resources to run (effectively) was the Muslim Brotherhood?
H.H: Yes. A process of fair elections is not related to who is ready and who is not. Also, such an argument assumes that 2012 will be the last time the country will hold elections, which should be a wrong assumption. Those parties not ready in 2012 will get another change in 2016, 2020, etc. They can start preparing now.
S.A.L: What do you think that the future of Syria will look like in the coming months?
H.H: The war will continue and Assad will slowly lose his advantages, domestically and internationally. The best Assad can hope for is a civil war that results in a stalemate, but given how outnumbered Assad's Alawites are, I say in the long run, ongoing war is not in his interest. He needed a quick victory and didn't get one. I'd say he missed chance, but he refuses to admit it, like all other dictators before him.
S.A.L: What are your views on the Egyptian government and the role played by the Muslim Brotherhood? Will Egyptians be allowed more freedom and if so in what way and how?
H.H: The problem with freedom in Egypt, and other Arab countries, is not because of MB alone. The understanding of freedom as defined in the Western World is completely different. Take for example the Danish artists' prophet cartoons. From a Western perspective, drawing them was completely inline with the principle of freedom. However, the majority of Arab Muslims argue differently and insist that any opinion they deem offensive does not fall under freedom of expression. This is wrong. The problem is such understanding is not MB's alone. It applies to the majority of Arabs.
So, whatever shortages in freedom and democracy you see in Egypt or Syria or Libya are the collective responsibility of the peoples' of these countries. This does not mean they are doomed. It just means it takes time to learn, and practice makes perfect.
S.A.L: In the series of uprisings, revolts and protests that form the Arab Spring, which for you were the most surprising, which should we have seen coming, and which did you predict?
Didn't predict any of them. But the most surprising were Libya and Syria. These countries were near the bottom on every chart of freedom in the world, and yet citizens defied all odds and rose up to confront their tyrants, which to me was not only surprising, but impressive and commands respect.
S.A.L: Might Turkey consider a military intervention in Syria if events grow in size and seriousness?
H.H: No. The only intervention will come through NATO and so far there has been no effort to consider a Syria operation.
S.A.L: Will the various Peoples’ movements throughout the Middle East weaken or strengthen Iran’s position in the Middle East?
H.H: Iran fears two things. First, if Assad loses, Iran will lose a major ally. Second, the revolutionary fervor might spread to Iran, especially if in post-revolutions something good comes out of them in terms of better governance, democracy and freedom.
S.A.L: Many countries in the Middle East come under scrutiny over the treatment of women; how has this changed in recent years and what countries are leading the way to change?
H.H: Kuwait gave women voting rights. Last parliament had four women, unfortunately none were elected to this one. Lebanon and Jordan are relatively in a better position. But like in the issue of freedom, culture perceptions affect the understandings of women's rights away from the standard that the West tries to stick to.
S.A.L: Has the Arab Spring had a positive impact for social issues like woman’s rights, etc. If so, in which countries is this most noticeable?
H.H: Not yet. But one of the gains for women is their presence and participation in the making of the Arab Spring. While this has no immediate effects, in the long run, this will look better with the coming generations of women.
S.A.L: What do you think the future of Iran will be in the coming years?
H.H: Eventually, the Spring will catch up with Iran. We cannot specify when. It will most probably be a surprise like in the other Arab countries. What we know is that Iran is standing on the wrong side of history and Iranians know it. Some time in the future they will move. They already did in 1979, but their revolution took a wrong path. I am certain they can and they will do it again.
S.A.L: How likely is a war between Iran and Israel in the near future? If so, what do you think would be the final straw?
H.H: I don't see war coming between the two. America will not let it happen. Also, indicators point at a possible compromise with Iran over its nuclear activity.
S.A.L: Do you feel the likelihood is that Iran will try to shut the straights of Hormuz?
H.H: Iran might try, but I don't think its military can match the US and that guarantees the straights remains open because it is of vital national interest to America.
S.A.L: What is your view of the youth in the Middle East? Will they trend more towards democracy or radical Islam?
H.H: The youth are part of the culture and they reflect society. They will go different ways. The good news is that if you're growing up and you live the Arab Spring, that'll have a positive effect on your psyche and your understanding of the world and the need to fight for freedom. The youth today will always say that back in the day their predecessors had to fight to earn their freedom and build their countries.
S.A.L: To finish on a personal note, If you could have dinner with six people from any historical period, who would they be?
H.H: Islam's fourth caliph Ali bin Abi Taleb, Paul the Apostle, Mohamed Ali the Great (once ruler of Egypt), Saddam Hussein, President John Adams and Jon Stewart
HH: I am Lebanese-Iraqi, grew up in both countries and went to the American University of Beirut. I worked as reporter and later editor at Beirut's The Daily Star daily newspaper for a few years. In 2004, I moved to Washington where I worked as producer with Congress-funded Arabic TV Alhurra. In 2007, I joined Kuwaiti newspaper Alrai as their correspondent in Washington, a position I still occupy today.
S.A.L: What are some of the general misconceptions many people in the Western World (and especially America) have about the Middle East?
H.H: Misconceptions are on both sides of the ocean and are shaped by history of the different populations. The Middle East is an old world with layers of civilizations mixing, marrying and replacing each other over the past 15,000 years or more. America is the new world were people understand diversity and try to stay politically correct when dealing and interacting with each other. Middle Easterners (the Arabs) are often apprehensive when dealing with great powers. Their experience with colonial Europe was less than ideal and they project this experience on America as the world's current colonial power.
The difference in the way they look at themselves and at the world has shaped the relations between the two, and not in a good way I would say. This said, I have to add that it is difficult to gauge such sentiments on either side because we risk overgeneralizing. The Americans are not one, and neither are the Arabs. We have to keep in mind that there is no one view that defines each side, even though some perceptions are more prevailing than others on either sides.
S.A.L: How would you best describe the series of events known as the Arab Spring, where did they begin, etc?
H.H: The Arab Spring is the natural evolution of events. History teaches us that humanity is not as stagnant as we might think. The reason why the Arab Spring took the form of public protest, and at times an all out war like in Libya, is because all Arab countries lack the mechanism needed for change. The rulers of Arab countries and their associates were lured by power and have done their best to remain in their positions for decades. This is against the natural flow of things. Sooner or later, change was coming. Because it has no proper channels, it looks messy.
S.A.L Why is the Arab Spring not working in Syria like it worked in Libya, Tunisia and Egypt?
H.H: When people defy a dictator, they do so knowing that the world is watching, and that the world will not tolerate the tyrant's reprisal beyond a certain number of deaths. In Egypt, Mubarak killed dozens, but he could not go on killing because the world was watching and eventually forced him to step down. The same thing happened in Libya even though Qaddafi, being the crazy man he was, was not willing to let go without a bloody mess and foreign intervention. The reason why the world acted in both cases is due to the strategic importance of both countries. Egypt is the most populous Arab country with around 80 million people. Libya is amongst the top 10 countries with biggest oil reserves. Syria, however, has a meager amount of oil not worthy of the cost of foreign military intervention. Its population is less than quarter that of Egypt, and Assad's international friends like Russia, China and Iran, have made and conclusive foreign intervention on the side of the anti-Assad freedom fighters more costly. So the world believes strategic benefits out of Syria are much less than its cost. That's why Syria has lingered. Assad kills those demanding he steps down and the world watches.
S.A.L: Why did the Arab Spring happen now and not earlier or at a later time? What is so significant about this happening now? There has been corruption in the Middle East for many many decades, and the amount of "corruption" and "lack of freedom" has not really changed throughout these decades, so why are people rebelling now?
H.H: We cannot always assign a single reason for change. It happens because of several factors. I would say the telecom boom, the internet and sat TV opened many Arab eyes about their lagging behind other nations. Why can a boy of Kenyan decent living in the US, raised by a single mother sometimes on food stamps, ascend the ranks to become America's president while average boys in Libya, Syria or Egypt have to watch with envy?
S.A.L: Why don't we see similar revolutions against Israel by the Arabs? (since it seems that Arabs are just as much against Israel as they were against their rulers if not more in many cases.)
H.H: Revolutions depend on certain premises. You have to be a citizen in a country to have certain privileges. In the US, Canadians cannot come to the country and ask for rights. Their rights are with the country that elects them. In the case of Israel and Palestinians, the question is multilayered. First you have Palestinians who live inside Israel (around 20 percent of the population). These have some rights. They can elect and be elected to the country's parliament, the Knesset. However, they are missing other rights pertaining to serving in the army and real estate issues. These injustices can be redressed, but they are connected to the bigger picture. Real estate ownership in Israel is complicated, even for the Jews. As for the army, there has been a history of mistrust between the state of Israel and some of its Arab citizens, given the historic animosity between the two. This can be solved if the two parties decide to, but it might take some time.
Then you have 2 million Palestinians who live in what the UN recognizes as the Palestinian Territories (PT). Israel controls the bigger part of these lands (since its withdrawal from Gaza, it occupies the West Bank only) and has allowed for some of its citizens to build on them calling them "disputed lands" whose ownership will be decided in a final deal between the two sides. The issue is thus between two nations, Israel, and the Palestinians aspiring for end of occupation and creation of a sovereign state. This means that Palestinians of the PT are not citizens of Israel, and as such, the word revolution does not apply to whatever objection they might have against Israel. In the past, there were popular protests against Israel's military personnel controlling PT. The first, in 1987, resulted in the start of a peace process later. The second, in 2001, ended without any agreements.
S.A.L: Do you believe that Egypt had a fair election being that the only organization that was ready to run and had the resources to run (effectively) was the Muslim Brotherhood?
H.H: Yes. A process of fair elections is not related to who is ready and who is not. Also, such an argument assumes that 2012 will be the last time the country will hold elections, which should be a wrong assumption. Those parties not ready in 2012 will get another change in 2016, 2020, etc. They can start preparing now.
S.A.L: What do you think that the future of Syria will look like in the coming months?
H.H: The war will continue and Assad will slowly lose his advantages, domestically and internationally. The best Assad can hope for is a civil war that results in a stalemate, but given how outnumbered Assad's Alawites are, I say in the long run, ongoing war is not in his interest. He needed a quick victory and didn't get one. I'd say he missed chance, but he refuses to admit it, like all other dictators before him.
S.A.L: What are your views on the Egyptian government and the role played by the Muslim Brotherhood? Will Egyptians be allowed more freedom and if so in what way and how?
H.H: The problem with freedom in Egypt, and other Arab countries, is not because of MB alone. The understanding of freedom as defined in the Western World is completely different. Take for example the Danish artists' prophet cartoons. From a Western perspective, drawing them was completely inline with the principle of freedom. However, the majority of Arab Muslims argue differently and insist that any opinion they deem offensive does not fall under freedom of expression. This is wrong. The problem is such understanding is not MB's alone. It applies to the majority of Arabs.
So, whatever shortages in freedom and democracy you see in Egypt or Syria or Libya are the collective responsibility of the peoples' of these countries. This does not mean they are doomed. It just means it takes time to learn, and practice makes perfect.
S.A.L: In the series of uprisings, revolts and protests that form the Arab Spring, which for you were the most surprising, which should we have seen coming, and which did you predict?
Didn't predict any of them. But the most surprising were Libya and Syria. These countries were near the bottom on every chart of freedom in the world, and yet citizens defied all odds and rose up to confront their tyrants, which to me was not only surprising, but impressive and commands respect.
S.A.L: Might Turkey consider a military intervention in Syria if events grow in size and seriousness?
H.H: No. The only intervention will come through NATO and so far there has been no effort to consider a Syria operation.
S.A.L: Will the various Peoples’ movements throughout the Middle East weaken or strengthen Iran’s position in the Middle East?
H.H: Iran fears two things. First, if Assad loses, Iran will lose a major ally. Second, the revolutionary fervor might spread to Iran, especially if in post-revolutions something good comes out of them in terms of better governance, democracy and freedom.
S.A.L: Many countries in the Middle East come under scrutiny over the treatment of women; how has this changed in recent years and what countries are leading the way to change?
H.H: Kuwait gave women voting rights. Last parliament had four women, unfortunately none were elected to this one. Lebanon and Jordan are relatively in a better position. But like in the issue of freedom, culture perceptions affect the understandings of women's rights away from the standard that the West tries to stick to.
S.A.L: Has the Arab Spring had a positive impact for social issues like woman’s rights, etc. If so, in which countries is this most noticeable?
H.H: Not yet. But one of the gains for women is their presence and participation in the making of the Arab Spring. While this has no immediate effects, in the long run, this will look better with the coming generations of women.
S.A.L: What do you think the future of Iran will be in the coming years?
H.H: Eventually, the Spring will catch up with Iran. We cannot specify when. It will most probably be a surprise like in the other Arab countries. What we know is that Iran is standing on the wrong side of history and Iranians know it. Some time in the future they will move. They already did in 1979, but their revolution took a wrong path. I am certain they can and they will do it again.
S.A.L: How likely is a war between Iran and Israel in the near future? If so, what do you think would be the final straw?
H.H: I don't see war coming between the two. America will not let it happen. Also, indicators point at a possible compromise with Iran over its nuclear activity.
S.A.L: Do you feel the likelihood is that Iran will try to shut the straights of Hormuz?
H.H: Iran might try, but I don't think its military can match the US and that guarantees the straights remains open because it is of vital national interest to America.
S.A.L: What is your view of the youth in the Middle East? Will they trend more towards democracy or radical Islam?
H.H: The youth are part of the culture and they reflect society. They will go different ways. The good news is that if you're growing up and you live the Arab Spring, that'll have a positive effect on your psyche and your understanding of the world and the need to fight for freedom. The youth today will always say that back in the day their predecessors had to fight to earn their freedom and build their countries.
S.A.L: To finish on a personal note, If you could have dinner with six people from any historical period, who would they be?
H.H: Islam's fourth caliph Ali bin Abi Taleb, Paul the Apostle, Mohamed Ali the Great (once ruler of Egypt), Saddam Hussein, President John Adams and Jon Stewart
